Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Bottled Lightening: Superbatterie, Electric Cars and the New Lithium Economy - Fletcher (2011)

Seth Fletcher is a senior editor for Popular Science.

Bottled Lightening provides an excellent history of the development of the battery. Fletcher describes how the evolution of the battery has made the technology boom possible by making long-lasting energy possible.  He notes that with dwindling world petroleum supplies, global unrest and climate change, the need for alternative energy sources has become critical.  Without an efficient means of storing energy, however, the transition to alternative sources is not possible.

Much of Bottled Lightening focuses on the development of electric cars.  Fletcher notes that electric cars are not a new concept.  In fact, electric cars were available at the outset of the automotive industry.  The development of the internal combustion engine and the abundance of oil reserves obviated the need for electric cars and research and development ceased until recent decades.  In the 70's during the oil embargo, GM began working on a new electric car called the EV1.  Although those who piloted it were very enthusiastic, GM ceased the program when oil once again became abundantly available.

With the development of lithium batteries, electric cars have once again become an area of significant research and development.  Many of the major car manufacturers around the world are introducing hybrid and electric cars.  GM has again entered the market with the Chevy Volt. 

Research into the development of more efficient and powerful batteries is also being spurred by the need to store energy generated for the power grid.  Batteries are needed to store energy generated by wind and solar sources.

As the energy market begins to move towards lithium rather than petroleum, a whole new supply chain has emerged.  With some of the largest lithium reserves being located in countries such as Bolivia, the international challenges may prove as daunting as with petroleum.  Many other countries, including the U.S. have large reserves, however, so availability may not prove a problem.

Monday, July 4, 2011

Where Good Ideas Come From - Steve Johnson (2010)

Steven Johnson is the author of numerous best sellers.  He writes for Time, Wired, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. "Where Good Ideas Come From" examines the history of innovation.  In looking at innovation throughout the ages, the author analyzes the impact of the environment, individual inspiration and the competitive marketplace on innovation.

Johnson introduces several interesting concepts that he suggests spur innovation.  One of the most fundamental concepts he describes is "The Adjacent Possible."  The term the "Adjacent Possible" was first coined by the scientist Stuart Kauffman.  It refers to first order combinations that lead to other possibilities in a generative and exponential manner.  Johnson describes how life on earth began simply as a "handful of basic molecules" that collided to form other molecules that eventually led to the complex building blocks of life.  Within the Adjacent Possible framework, only certain outcomes are possible, but they grow with each new collision or combination.  In the case of life on Earth, the highly connective nature of carbon rapidly expanded the Adjacent Possible.

The Adjacent Possible for good ideas, or "Innovations," requires a density of ideas capable of colliding and combining.  Johnson contends that is why research has shown that the average person living in a city tends to be more creative than one living in a small town.  Johnson provides evidence as to how the rate of life-changing innovations increased throughout history as people settled in cities. 

This trend has increased even more since the creation of the World Wide Web.  Johnson contends that the web has made it possible for people to share and grow ideas no matter where they live.  This has dramatically increased the Adjacent Possible.

Johnson examines the role of the individual and group in the innovative process.  For the most part, Johnson posits, innovations have grown out of a collaborative process rather than an individual's inspiration.  To support this conclusion, the author analyzes major innovations introduced since 1600 to the present.  In addition to classifying them as individual or networked accomplishments, he also classifies them as either market or non-market driven. 

From 1600 - 1800 there was a relatively even split between individual and networked innovations. Almost all were non-market driven and were motivated by the passions and interests of the creators.

In 1800, however, there was a tremendous increase in innovation and a decided shift towards networked approaches.  This, of course, coincided with the industrial revolution and the growth of cities.

With regard to the incentives for innovation, Johnson examined the role of the marketplace in stimulating new ideas.  He noted that most economists contend that it is the competitive market that spurs innovation.  Johnson acknowledged that many innovations have resulted due to the promise of monetary reward, but he also demonstrated that many of the most significant innovations have not been so motivated. 

He states, "...connectivity may, in the end, be more valuable to innovation than purely competitive mechanisms."